The Stratum Floor · TTF forward vs modelled demand floor
burn floor 9.8 bcm/yr · floor 31.7 €/MWhannounced ░in queue ▒contracted ▓energised █≋ submerged = market under floor● grade B quote · ○ seed rowstrata fractions illustrative in slice 1
the drawn curve joins marks captured 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-13 — the line between two dots is drawn, not observed
TTF tenors: BYO marks · as-of 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-13 · seed rows pending desk file · history: none in this slice
audit boundary · desk market review 2026-08-15: the quoted rows (TTF-M1, Cal-27, EUA-Dec26) were checked against independent public reads and agreed. No public quote was found for Win-26, Sum-27, Cal-28, Cal-29 at any of seven publishers, so those rows — and every seed row here — cannot be checked by anyone outside this desk. A licensed forward source would close that; no change to this page can.
model: floor, ghosts, burn and edges derive from the rail assumptions (calibration test-locked) · the 28/44 GW build, 25/55 % share and 48/56 % η bounds are thesis assumptions, unsourced in slice 1
monetisation: withheld — A44 loading, no simulated stand-in
breakeven legs: gas 61.80 (web quote · web aggregate · 2026-08-11) · EUA 82.26 (web quote · web aggregate · 2026-08-13) · η 52%
context: EEX EUA auction print unavailable — context only, never an input